Can Climate Change Cause Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions?

For my next blog posts, I am going to do another case-study saga similar to my posts on Ladakh, this time in Japan. I thought this might be an interesting contrast between two regions that are both hazard hot-spots, but with a wide gap in GDP. I was actually intending to start my Japan saga in this post, but I came upon some interesting articles online yesterday by a Geologist at UCL, Bill McGuire, that I wanted to talk about. These articles stated a causal link between climate change and geological hazards such as earthquakes and volcanoes.  I’d heard many times before that volcanic eruptions have the potential to change climate change, but never that climate change might cause eruptions. Let me know what you think in the comment section below!

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   Typically, when thinking of climate induced hazards, most of us (myself included) will think of mass movement, flooding, storms, droughts, etc. However, there is a growing body of evidence that supports the idea that climate change is linked to a potential growing frequency in geophysical hazards. The time scale that this operates over, however, is not entirely clear, so whether we will see the change in our lifetime is questionable. 

   In Iceland, for example, ice sheets that cover volcanoes such as the Eyjafjallajökull ice-sheet, are rapidly melting. During the melting period, large pressures that are exerted by the ice are beginning to lessen, which may have the effect of triggering volcanic eruptions. In other words, the change in weight alters the balance of forces atop of the Earth’s crust, decreasing lithostatic pressure (Loughlin, 2002). By geological standards, this change in weight can make the rebound take place very rapidly, destabilising the faults. The recent eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, which caused a European air-traffic stand-still, is thought by some to have resulted from the recent rapid warming of high-latitudes. However, this is still hotly debated, with some scientists predicting a significant lag-time of around 2,500 years before we would see the effects on volcanic activity.

Will there be more future eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull? Source

   Similarly, the loading and subsequent unloading of ice due to rapid warming on active faults could cause earthquakes, and even submarine landslides that have the potential to cause tsunamis. GPS measurements have revealed that the crust beneath the Greenland ice sheet is rebounding due to warming, providing the potential for future earthquakes. There is a possibility that this could trigger submarine landslides spawning tsunamis capable of threatening North Atlantic coastlines (McGuire, 2007). In fact, history may repeat itself, as during the last Ice Age, the melting of the ice caused increased seismicity along the margins of ice sheets in Scandinavia, resulting in these submarine landslides (McGuire, 2012).

   Ice melt from climate change will predominantly enter the ocean, and additionally, as temperatures rise, the water in the ocean will expand in a process named ‘thermal expansion’ or steric sea-level rise (IPCC, N/A). Both these two factors will result in global sea level rise. This extra weight could apply extra pressure to faults near coastlines, effectively ‘bending’ the crust. This compression could push magma lying around underneath a volcano, triggering eruptions. For example, the seasonal eruptions of Pavlof volcano in Alaska tend to occur during the winter months when the regional sea-level is only 30cm higher than during the summer (McGuire, 2012), highlighting the sensitivity of some volcanoes to sea-level change.  Additionally, McGuire et al. (1997) examined the change in the rate of sea-level rise and volcanic activity in the Mediterranean for the past 80,000 years, finding that when sea level rose quickly, more volcanic eruptions occurred, increasing at a staggering 300%.

However, many geologists such as Roland Burgmann of the University of Berkeley, California are doubtful of the validity of these claims. They state that catastrophic rates of sea level rise in the future are uncertain, and that the current rate of rise - around 3mm per year (NASA, 2015) - is not enough to destabilise the crust. When researching for this article, I was surprised at how little literature seemed to address this issue, which perhaps indicates that it is of little cause for concern. What do you think? 

Storm Abigail - A Result of Anthropogenic Environmental Change?

Chances are, if you've been living in the UK the last few days you've heard of Storm Abigail (a product of Hurricane Kate), our first ever named storm. Generally, the UK has had relatively stable and easy to manage weather - in Southern England, we get on average less than 650 mm per year of precipitation (Met Office, 2015). Granted, in some parts of Scotland rainfall can exceed 4,000 mm per year, severe storms are quite rare.

Storm Abigail hit with Hurricane-force winds, floods and blackouts when it struck the North. Off the coast of west Scotland, waves measured up to 42ft were forecast along with gusts of 70mph - in some exposed locations reaching up to 100 mph (e.g. in the Western Isles). The Met Office have upgraded the storm to an amber warning.

Is Storm Abigail a sign of things to come in the UK due to increasing anthropogenic change? Mainstream rhetoric seems to state that climate change is a problem that is predominantly only facing developing countries. A Met Office report in 2014 stated how throughout the winter months of 2013/14, the UK experienced an exceptional run of severe winter storms, that culminated in widespread coastal damage and flooding from January. The report estimates that by 2030, a sea-level rise of between 11-16cm is likely, which would only increase flooding and coastal erosion when further storms occur. Additionally, heavy rain events are becoming more frequent. In the 1960s and 1970s, what might have been a 1 in 125 day event is now becoming a 1 in 85 day event (Jones et al., 2013).

Climate sceptics, however, are unsurprisingly doubting the validity of this argument on various blogs. It is my opinion, that anthropogenic environmental change is causing more severe storms like Abigail, as evident by the Met Office report. Already the Met Office have shortlisted several future storm names, indicating a predicted increase in the frequency of severe storms in the UK. Do you think Storm Abigail is a result of climate change?

Source: memecrunch.com

Environmental Change: a Gendered Issue?

Welcome to my first blog post after the Ladakh saga! Thank you for sticking with me through three long posts - it was only meant to be one post but I ended up getting carried away. This post is going to be dedicated to the issue of gender and climate change, but, of course, focusing on the issue of natural disasters and hazards. Thanks to the people that have already filled out my poll on the right hand side - I am actually quite surprised with the result so far. If you haven’t done so, I would love to hear your opinions on this issue, so please fill out the poll!

Next post: Hurricane Abigail - a result of anthropogenic climate change?

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With COP21 in Paris looming around the corner, I believe it is of utmost importance for everyone to be able to understand current and potential climate policy. I am, and have always been a firm believer in gendered implications in any crisis - be it war, famine, or natural disasters. What I mean is that women, and minority genders, are more vulnerable than men. I understand that my view isn’t shared by everyone; a Gender Studies lecturer at my University isn’t even convinced by the link between natural disasters and gender (which doesn’t bode well for my argument...). Nevertheless, I will attempt to convince you otherwise.

There has been a recent shift in development organisations to ‘gender-mainstream’ policy. For example, the United Nations have begun to make their Millennium Development Goals more gender-sensitive, bringing in policies to promote gender equality and women’s empowerment, and also acknowledging that other areas such as health have gendered implications.

The underlying principle behind literature on the gendered nature of climate change is that women are often poorer and more vulnerable to poverty than men, particularly in developing countries. Additionally, socially constructed male-female gender roles and power-relations are an important factor (Blaikie et al., 1994).

Global Gender Gap in 2013. Source

Nelson et al. (2002) describe how women experience high levels of pre- and post-disaster poverty, due to experiencing unequal status in the workforce, being more likely to be employed in the informal sector and small enterprises (which are more vulnerable to disasters), and having less equitable access to land and other natural resources compared to men.

Take, for example, the 1991 cyclone floods in Bangladesh. Of the 20-44 age group who were affected by the flood, 71 females per thousand died compared with 15 males per thousand (Baden et al., 1994). This was due to a number of cultural factors: women had less opportunity to learn how to swim, and norms that related to the preservation of women’s honour through seclusion meant that they delayed leaving the house to seek refuge.

Another natural disaster that Nelson et al. (2002) mentions is Hurricane Mitch, which is a particular example of post-disaster vulnerability. The most affected to the hurricane were the most marginalised in society, which included female-headed households. Most of the responsibility of caring for children and the elderly fell on women, which resulted in women finding it difficult to return to waged work. On the other hand, men had little cultural expectations to care for the vulnerable, and were easily able to resume paid work after the disaster.

I could give plenty more examples relating to drought, tsunamis, earthquakes and even mass movement, but I am wary of making this post too long - so perhaps I will resume this topic in another blog post. I think, what will be most interesting to see is whether during the COP21 talks, gender-mainstreaming policy will be taken into account. As natural hazards and disasters are becoming a major issue in climate change rhetoric, the gendered nature of natural disasters need to be acknowledged. 

What do you think? Do you think that climate change is a gendered issue?

Looking at Ladakh - Part 3

This will be my final post on Ladakh - I’ve really enjoyed having an outlet to describe some of my feelings and thoughts on the region, and I hope you’ve enjoyed reading about it to! It is definitely one of the most interesting places I’ve ever visited, as you can probably tell by my excitement when writing. My next post will be on whether there is a gendered nature to climate change impacts - looking particularly at natural hazards (as a feminist I can’t resist talking about gender!). Before I upload my next post, I’ve attached a poll on the right-hand side to see what my readers think of the topic, maybe I can change your mind! In the meantime, happy reading :)

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The average annual income in Jammu and Kashmir per capita is around £870 (Gov of India, 2014), with the main sources of income being derived from agriculture, and the highly seasonal tourism industry. Slightly worryingly for Ladakh, is that tourism is a highly volatile industry, vulnerable to external shocks. Thus, most recently, the regions natural disasters have begun to discourage tourists from visiting. As there is an issue of a rise in the frequency of natural hazards due to environmental change, mitigation is crucial for the region.

As of yet, the main disaster management techniques used have been hazard responsive. After the cloud burst event in 2010, the Indian Army immediately launched a series of Search and Rescue operations, with Army medics on hand to treat the injured (Gupta et al., 2012). However, although search and rescue operations are needed once a disaster strikes, it is critical to enact disaster prevention schemes in conjunction with responsive strategies. That being said, not all prevention schemes will be suitable in Ladakh due to its low income status and poor road and communication networks (Gov of Jammu and Kashmir, 2006). These include some hard engineering techniques such as Japanese ‘earthquake proof’ building designs. In this post, I will explore a couple of potential management strategies that may be suitable for the region.

The Natural Disaster Management Act (2005) envisaged a proactive approach to disaster management in the region, through preparedness, prevention and planning, and to integrate disaster prevention in development - although this has been limited in success (as shown by management techniques in 2010), and has been criticised strongly for its distinctly 'top-down' approach.

Mass Movement Mitigation

In Ladakh, soil is bare and rocky with bare gravel slopes, with mass movement occurring frequently in Jammu and Kashmir as a whole - the hazard being most likely triggered by a flash flood (Gov of Jammu and Kashmir, 2006). Development activities, such as deforestation and road construction, have decreased the stability of slopes (Hodgkins, 2013). One of the key strategies to increase slope stability would be afforestation to anchor slopes and raise their shear strength. The majority of vegetation in the region are scrub-like vegetation such as Ephedraceae, and grasslands. It would be vital to plant these so as not to introduce invasive species. Afforestation is also a relatively low cost technique.

Ephedra gerardiana found in the Himalaya. Source: flowersofindia.net

Drainage networks on slopes are also a suitable and viable option, particularly with slopes close to human populations. The presence of water within a rocky slope are most often the major factor leading to instability. Hoek and Bray (1981) describe that drainage networks should take three considerations into account:

• Reduce water pressure in the vicinity of potential breakage surfaces through selective shallow and sub-shallow drainage
• Place drainage in order to reduce water pressure in the immediate vicinity of the hillside
• Prevent water entering the hillside through open or discontinuity traction cracks.

Flood Mitigation

Similarly to mass movement mitigation, one of the most feasible approaches to manage the effects of flooding would be afforestation, due to interception of precipitation and reduction of surface runoff. Around streambeds and wetlands in Ladakh, trees are able to grow, such as Willow, Juniper and Poplar (Kar and Chandel, 2009). in In my last post, I also mentioned that there was a potential for glacial lakes and rivers to burst their banks from the new influxes of glacial meltwater, in what is termed as an ‘outburst flood’. Perhaps the most important management strategy to take is to reduce the volume of water in the glacial lakes, thus reducing the magnitude of the possible peak discharge at the time of breach. This can be achieved through a variety of means: controlled breaching of the moraine dams; construction of an outlet control structure; pumping or siphoning the water from the lake; and tunnelling through the moraine barrier or under an ice dam (Mool et al., 2011).

Land-Use Management

Source: Geology for Global Development

If we go back to the diagram used in my first blog post (above), to manage natural disasters effectively, it is key to limit exposure and vulnerability. The management techniques mentioned so far are effective at limiting vulnerability, but to limit exposure land-use planning should be used to ensure houses are not being built on hazard-risk zones. GIS and remote sensing can provide valuable information for hazard mapping, and to show which areas are suitable for future development (Gupta et al., 2012). GIS mapping can be relatively low-cost due to mapping programs such as Google Maps being readily available for free online. Ladakh is also fortunate to be close to the prestigious Jammu and Kashmir University, which is well known for its highly regarded Geology department.

Looking at Ladakh - Part 2

Hi everyone - thank you for all the comments you have been giving me on my posts! I was planning to make this the final blog post on Ladakh, but the region is just so fascinating that I realised I had written a lot more than I had planned to. So this will be the penultimate post; the final will be on management techniques and looking at who will be most impacted by climate change in the region - with a particular focus on gender. Anyway, I hope you enjoy this post!

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In Ladakh, anthropogenic climate change is predicted by many scientists and organisations (e.g. WWF; IPCC, 2007) to make the region warmer. Precipitation, will additionally be effected - becoming more sporadic and intense, which would increase the likelihood of extreme weather events such as the cloudburst event in 2010 (featured in my last blog-post). In the last 35 years, temperatures in winter have risen by around a degree, and in summer by 0.5 degrees Celsius (Singh, 2014). Glacial ice sheets high in the Himalaya that store large volumes of freshwater have began to melt at an alarming rate due to this recent warming (UNEP, 2007). Some glaciers, such as the Imja, are declining by 200m every year (Somos-Valenzuela et al., 2012). What this has meant, is that the freshwater from glacial streams and lakes that many Himalayan towns rely on is becoming a rapidly scarce resource as the glacier shrinks in size. Ladakh’s two main industries - agriculture and tourism - are both very water intensive, particularly as tourism figures have began to reach thousands each year, and these tourists are demanding a higher and higher water usage per capita. 

The receding Imja Glacier and the growing Imja Lake. Source: The Guardian

For the time being, however, while some regions experience drought, other glacial lakes and streams have begun to increase in volume from the new influx of glacial meltwater. This has become a problem in itself, with lakes and streams overflowing in much of the Himalaya more broadly. The Imja glacial lake, for example, in Nepal is one of the most rapidly growing lakes in the Himalayan range. It has grown to nearly double the size in the last decade (Watanabe et al., 2009), reflecting the dangerous status bestowed upon it by the scientific community, such as Somos-Valenzuela et al. (2012) due to concerns that it may burst its banks. Similarly, in Ladakh, reports (e.g. Ahmad, 2015) show that glacial lakes have began to overflow, with flash flooding and mass movement impacting local communities. Precipitation in Ladakh is also becoming a large problem. While it may be intuitive to think that an increase in extreme weather events will decrease the chance of drought, it is not the case. Ladakh has an annual precipitation rate of 100mm per year, which falls mostly in the months of July and August, up to a rate of 25mm per month during this time (Worldweather.com, n/a). The low annual rainfall and seasonality of the rain is responsible for Ladakh’s dry, barren ground mostly lacking in vegetation. The cloudburst event of 2010 reached a peak precipitation rate of 75mm in 30 minutes; almost an entire year's worth of rain. If the scientists at the conference I attended are correct in estimating an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events and seasonality of rainfall, then the barren landscape of Ladakh will only exacerbate flooding and mass movement.

Children in St. Peter's School, Ladakh expressing

 their concern for the melting glaciers  

According to the Jammu and Kashmir State Action Plan on Climate Change (2013), maximum temperatures are expected to rise to between 0.5 - 2.5 degrees Celsius, while minimum temperatures are projected to rise by 1 - 4.5 degrees Celsius. Additionally, the report also estimates that the number of days with precipitation in the Himalayan region in 2030 may increase by 5 - 10 days on average, while the intensity of rainfall is likely to rise by 1 - 2 mm per day. It is no wonder, therefore, that the IPCC (2007) report state that every year, there will be at least one natural disaster in the Himalayan region. With population and tourist numbers soaring in Ladakh, it remains to be seen what a suitable plan of action will be. Not only will natural disasters such as flooding and drought become more prevalent, but secondary hazards that result from these (and earthquakes) in the area will increase in frequency - such as mass movement - due to unsuitable town planning. I will have to finish here - but in my final post I will comment on what direction I think the government should be pursuing! Any comments or feedback would be greatly appreciated :)